Polestar:Re: Regenerative Medicine Conferece 26-Oct-09 04:26
Been researching and investing in technology companies for almost 40 years. Met Cytori management this Spring and twice since, met GE at company headquarters, made lots of phone calls, and everything seems to check out. This is one of the most capable management teams I have met and I like their measured approach to a select number of billion dollar markets (cosmetic surgery, wound care, urinary incontinence, periodontal disease, etc.). Fair value is probably in the $400 to $500 million dollar market value range, at this point in the story. At under $200 million the stock looks very attractive. Nonetheless, it is thin so avoid the openings and wait for the dips. Good luck.
Re: cash 27-Oct-09 06:39 pm
Its NOT burning at a $30 million rate.The burn rate from operations is now supposed to be approximately $1.5 million per month before any margin contribution margin from sales. However, as Mark said on the call, the monthly proceeds from the Seaside deal roughly equal the monthly operating loss so cash has likely been even or slightly positive since that deal went into effect in mid summer. At that time I believe they had cash north of $15 million and this amount should stay steady or improve through the completion of the one-year Seaside deal. Of course the expectation is that by time that deal is complete the cash contribution from sales should start to be meaningful and or the company will have closed a least one strategic deal with the likes of a GE or JNJ or other corporate partner. Consequently, I don’t think there are any worries about cash in the near or intermediate term – and long term they should be able to generate it from sales - given reasonable margins on the consumables.Dilution from Seaside is probably already factored into the stock given the recent filing. If the company did a corporate it deal it would present some new dilution but the action would probably be seen as positive because corporate partners tend to be long term holders and often bring something more to the party than cash.
Re: What is a company worth that can restore 7-Dec-09 12:43 am
From a private equity perspective it is worth about 2 to 3 times invested capital at this stage. Cytori has invested about $200 million in its business meaning its present value is around $400 to $600 million (about $10 to $15 per share FD). If they continue to show good test results they should edge higher. Once they get FDA approval 10X invested capital (based on the size of the markets they are addressing) would be reasonable.
Re: looks like osir beginning heart trial 8-Jan-10 01:58 am
The OSIR approach won't work as well as Cytori because cells from marrow have to be cultured (to get enough of them) this increases their size but that is not good - you want small cells straight from fresh adipose as they are more easily transmitted and absorbed by the heart. Also, Cytori can treat within hours of a heart attack, whereas cultured cells take at least a week or two (just to get enough enough cells to make a treatment). During this time the damaged heart muscle already starts losing regeneration ability, scarring, etc. More importantly a Cytori adipose regenerative gimish has a portfolio of cells the recovering heart needs, whereas marrow derived stem cells alone are too monoculture to be effective. This will all be painfully obvious when full Restore and Apollo results are in. OSIR is already dead and doesn't know it.
The Cytori Edge 18-Jun-09 06:14 pm
In addition to an outstanding management team, 102 patents, major manufacturing partner (Olympus), major distribution partner (GE), Cytori is doing something that no other competitor seems to understand. Access to large quantities or “volume” of stem cells has been an industry wide problem that has caused some to bank umbilical cords, or mine bone marrow and or set up elaborate and time consuming procedures to grow cells in the laboratory. Cytori has demonstrated that adipose (fat) is the best source of large quantities of stem cells – and not just because this is where they are easiest to harvest – but because this is where you can also get progenitor cells and other beneficial cells now realized to be critical to a wide range of regenerative therapies. Cytori’s multi-cell solutions for lumpectomy recovery, critical wound care, myocardial infarction, urinary incontinence, etc. have already proved efficacious in multiple procedures – whereas most competitors are still wrestling with the “volume” issue.Companies that are primarily focused on harvesting miniscule amounts of stem cells from cord blood or marrow are looking very out of date compared to Cytori. With its ability to rapidly process stem cells from adipose, and quickly deliver a multi-cell bio-identical solution (that addresses a huge number of major medical problems), Cytori has an edge like no other in the business. Cytori is leading the way in regenerative medicine.
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