Assembled works of User Polestar

As mentioned last time- my blog will switch over to Cytori or Young-Foxes stuff- at our German Board somebody posted the assembled works of Yahoo- User POLESTAR- I think his readings deserve some more attention and a re-read-real Foxes stuff, if you ask me.

Polestar:Re: Regenerative Medicine Conferece 26-Oct-09 04:26

Been researching and investing in technology companies for almost 40 years. Met Cytori management this Spring and twice since, met GE at company headquarters, made lots of phone calls, and everything seems to check out. This is one of the most capable management teams I have met and I like their measured approach to a select number of billion dollar markets (cosmetic surgery, wound care, urinary incontinence, periodontal disease, etc.). Fair value is probably in the $400 to $500 million dollar market value range, at this point in the story. At under $200 million the stock looks very attractive. Nonetheless, it is thin so avoid the openings and wait for the dips. Good luck.

Re: cash 27-Oct-09 06:39 pm

Its NOT burning at a $30 million rate.The burn rate from operations is now supposed to be approximately $1.5 million per month before any margin contribution margin from sales. However, as Mark said on the call, the monthly proceeds from the Seaside deal roughly equal the monthly operating loss so cash has likely been even or slightly positive since that deal went into effect in mid summer. At that time I believe they had cash north of $15 million and this amount should stay steady or improve through the completion of the one-year Seaside deal. Of course the expectation is that by time that deal is complete the cash contribution from sales should start to be meaningful and or the company will have closed a least one strategic deal with the likes of a GE or JNJ or other corporate partner. Consequently, I don’t think there are any worries about cash in the near or intermediate term – and long term they should be able to generate it from sales - given reasonable margins on the consumables.Dilution from Seaside is probably already factored into the stock given the recent filing. If the company did a corporate it deal it would present some new dilution but the action would probably be seen as positive because corporate partners tend to be long term holders and often bring something more to the party than cash.

Re: What is a company worth that can restore 7-Dec-09 12:43 am

From a private equity perspective it is worth about 2 to 3 times invested capital at this stage. Cytori has invested about $200 million in its business meaning its present value is around $400 to $600 million (about $10 to $15 per share FD). If they continue to show good test results they should edge higher. Once they get FDA approval 10X invested capital (based on the size of the markets they are addressing) would be reasonable.

Re: looks like osir beginning heart trial 8-Jan-10 01:58 am

The OSIR approach won't work as well as Cytori because cells from marrow have to be cultured (to get enough of them) this increases their size but that is not good - you want small cells straight from fresh adipose as they are more easily transmitted and absorbed by the heart. Also, Cytori can treat within hours of a heart attack, whereas cultured cells take at least a week or two (just to get enough enough cells to make a treatment). During this time the damaged heart muscle already starts losing regeneration ability, scarring, etc. More importantly a Cytori adipose regenerative gimish has a portfolio of cells the recovering heart needs, whereas marrow derived stem cells alone are too monoculture to be effective. This will all be painfully obvious when full Restore and Apollo results are in. OSIR is already dead and doesn't know it.

The Cytori Edge 18-Jun-09 06:14 pm

In addition to an outstanding management team, 102 patents, major manufacturing partner (Olympus), major distribution partner (GE), Cytori is doing something that no other competitor seems to understand. Access to large quantities or “volume” of stem cells has been an industry wide problem that has caused some to bank umbilical cords, or mine bone marrow and or set up elaborate and time consuming procedures to grow cells in the laboratory. Cytori has demonstrated that adipose (fat) is the best source of large quantities of stem cells – and not just because this is where they are easiest to harvest – but because this is where you can also get progenitor cells and other beneficial cells now realized to be critical to a wide range of regenerative therapies. Cytori’s multi-cell solutions for lumpectomy recovery, critical wound care, myocardial infarction, urinary incontinence, etc. have already proved efficacious in multiple procedures – whereas most competitors are still wrestling with the “volume” issue.Companies that are primarily focused on harvesting miniscule amounts of stem cells from cord blood or marrow are looking very out of date compared to Cytori. With its ability to rapidly process stem cells from adipose, and quickly deliver a multi-cell bio-identical solution (that addresses a huge number of major medical problems), Cytori has an edge like no other in the business. Cytori is leading the way in regenerative medicine.

Chief Fox- about Sheepshead

Note: News from Middle Earth will be replaced by content of Young-Foxes, due to other things having priority at present- here ´s the article "about me" from http://www.young-foxes.com/

Sheepsheads past

Sheepshead is a 60 year old Dutchman, living now in the south-west of Germany , in the beautiful Palatine area, which is best known as wine country. He was born and raised in Dordrecht- the first Dutch city in Holland to receive City rights in 1220. The inhabitants of this city are nick-named Schapekoppen or Sheepsheads, for which obvious reason he adopted the same identity for the world-wide-web.

My youth in this city was exciting and pleasant and only fond memories remain. In actual fact I believe its still one of the undiscovered-, touristic attractions in the area. After my student days in Rotterdam (Economics, Erasmus University) I worked for five years for the maverick of public accountancy firms in the world, which firm ceased to exist due to "certain issues surrounding the Enron case" several years ago. That was fun too, but it was about time for me to leave crowded Holland forever. Since I had married a US lady several years before, I emigrated to the US and worked and lived in New Jersey and San Francisco for some time. Unforgettable for me was my 2 months leasure trip from east- to westcoast taking the southern route across the United States. Gordious country really, but nothing for me.

My career moved me therefore relatively soon back to Europe, specifically to London, UK where I bought a property in "Red Ken" Livingstones, borough of Islington. Having seen a lot of capitals and other big cities in the world, London remains for me, still the number one big city on this globe. Lots of action if you know where to find it. An example thereof is for instance the King´s Head, right around the corner where I lived, good free live music and pleasant folks. However after 5 years in London I had to leave it again for obvious reasons, another job, but this time as a freshly divorced bachelor, who left all his earthly belongings behind in the UK, except for a tiny bank account balance and moved to the continent- to "Kraut-country"- i.e. Germany.

If you would have asked me 30 years ago, "can you imagine spending most of your life in Germany?" I would have pronounced you nuts and no way would I ever be inclined in spending more than a year or so there. Well, I am still there and loving it. Not knowing the towns in South-West Germany except Heidelberg, I checked in there. That was a good decision, my female neighbour moved into my place relatively quick. We got married 2 years later and raised two sons together. I worked for another 20 years my ass off, mainly in financial management positions with a Dow Jones company. Lived in 7 different places during that span to accommodate the travel distance to whatever task I was working on, but several years ago I decided to quit, partially because of health reasons, but also because of a gigantic burn-out. My hand-picked super-smart young plant controllers, who were functionally reporting to, were quitting one by one for different reasons. Mainly to pursue their fortunes in the "new economy", leaving me with even more burden and work, while adequate replacement was hard to get by. I never had regrets about that decision. Although its like going thru a time wharp by seeing the slums of Calcutta thru your cab window one day and being in downtown Pittsburgh a few days later, to going to a life with walking the dog in the forest and being able to learn other interesting things that I have never ever dreamed of, is kind of special.

Sheepsheads present life

I still got my burn-out syndrom though, never was able to get rid of it. I still loath to do stuff that I dislike like taxreturns, which I only file after being threatened to cough up big fines. But I do enjoy creative stuff like writing and (presumably only a month or so) understanding the tech of Dreamweaver with which I am creating this HP. To close with two impressions from my "new" life- a picture from where I often walk my dog in beautiful palatinate.

News from Middle Earth - Issue 2

Sheepshead´s Blog

Edition Nr. 2

Somewhat delayed due to a heavy workload caused by the creation of Young-foxes.com- finally Edition 2 from News from Middle Earth.

The theme for this edition is very dear to my heart- wine and just about everything that relates to this topic. How I got to being a wine-lover is kind of interesting. In my youth in Holland, I probably never drank a glass of wine ever, but like everybody else had my glass of Heineken beer, while hanging out with my pals.

My emigration to the United States somewhere in the mid seventies changed this all. There I was suddenly confronted with bubbly stuff in cans, which was labelled - "beer". For most Europeans a horrifying experience, so alternatives were very welcome in those days. Luckily I was employed by a large wine company in San Francisco and had, in the course of my work , to do a job-buying a vineyard- in Napa Valley. That particular exposure and the economic fact, that the company internal store offered a 40% discount on retail prices, got me hooked on wine. And honestly- I never looked back- after moving back to Europe with its tasty beers- beer wasnt an issue anylonger either.

So now I am living in the Palatinate- pre-dominantly wine country, biggest output of all states in Germany and probably also having the best climate for growing wine. To get yourself acquainted to the Palitinate- here is a 2,5 minute english video of the area just round the corner, where I live-

About 70% of output is white wine, mainly riesling, which stuff is not my thing. I am a red wine drinker and my "heavy" favourite here is Dornfelder, a dark ruby coloured red, which as a "young" wine, tasts a bit like a gamay and the wines from the Fleury area in France. Fruity and pleasant- just the way I like it.

This years crop is gonna be -OUTSTANDING- although we had a long and cold winter, there was hardly any damage to the vines. Blossoming was, due to good wheather in late spring, very early in June, but the crop volume will be 15-20% below average, due to a cold spell later in June. However the quality will be great, since all conditions going forward were optimal. The "weinlese" - harvest- started therefor 10 days earlier than normal. The grapes simply are a bit less "juicy", but soaked with minerals and all good stuff that one requires for a quality wine.

To close with here a picture from the Bio-Winery of Franz Braun in Ranschbach on the more southern part of the "Deutsche Weinstraße"- the route that runs from Bockenheim in the north to the french border in the south.

Nowadays about 80% of the crop is harvested by gigantic automatic harvesting equipment- only the vineyards in the higher areas and Bio wineries like that from Franz Braun still harvest by hand. I visited him a while back and can assure you that the quality is excellent and his "Dornfelder" great.

News from Middle Earth- Issue 1- dd 11-13-2009

Sheepsheads Blog

News from Middle Earth- Issue 1

Yesterday, first day twitteter- today first time bloggerer. Life goes fast on the web. While thinking what would might interest the web inhabitants, I decided it really cant be about myself, but possibly my thoughts on a major theme thats occupying the minds of the people in middle earth.

Intro: I live in the Palatinate area of Germany- fertile country, the belt where lots of foodstuffs are grown in the lower areas near the Rhine, while the higher parts deliver every year the biggest wine-output of the country- typical Hobbit-land so to speak here in Middle Earth.

So- this blog will be at first- News from Middle Earth for non- hobbits living elsewhere and the news that dominated everything this week, was the free-death of the goalie of the German National Football Team- Robert Enke. Picture above.

The 32 year old took his life last monday by jumping in front of a train, a mile away from his rural farm near Hannover- north Germany.

The question that crossed everybodies mind obviously was, how could a succesful rich, young man arrive to such an act of desperation? One reason could have been that, 2 years ago his 2 year old daughter died of a rare heart disease, but this single event appears not (only) be the cause.

Enke is known to have suffered from severe depressions since 2003. An illness which can be mortal as we can conclude from his suicide. And help to prevent his act wasnt available at the time he obviously was in need of it.

I think we should take the opportunity of learning from this horrible event, by looking around our own circle of people that we know and love and be watchfull of signs of the illness- depression.

And be willing to help, talk to people and making sure they get professional support when things are getting really bad. Think about it.

About me- you can find a lot here- http://www.young-foxes.com/Home4

Next week- Issue 2 of News from Middle Eearth